Betting math
How to Hedge Parlays
When you have a winning parlay bet in a live game, your betting app may offer to lock in a win right now and your bookmaker may offer a cash-out at a guaranteed amount. Alternatively, you can hedge the final leg of the parlay with another bet. Without knowing your stake and the payout, you can't know if a manual hedge or a cash-out offers the stronger floor, but the decision can turn on whether you think this hedge price is plus money or minus money.
What a Hedge Is
A parlay hedge is a reverse bet on your final open leg. When the parlay is down to one remaining event, a hedge is a bet on the opposite side.123 It's a tradeoff: it can lock in or improve your profit if the final leg goes against you, but you're taking home less than your potential would have given you if the final leg comes in.
The Equal-Result Formula
The hedge formula you want to use when your goal is the same return whichever side wins is:
Original Return ÷ Hedge Odds = Hedge Stake
Major hedge calculators use that formula.456
When You Might Hedge Partway
Many bettors prefer to hedge only in part when the hedge odds are minus7, because of the costs of overbetting. When you place an Equal-Result hedge as a minus bet, it can mean you're betting more than your original stake was.
Cash-Out versus Manual Hedge
The other option you have when you have a live parlay is cash-out8: that's a bet closure the sportsbook offers. The cash-out price and the Equal-Result hedge price are two bids you can compare. A hedge calculator can help compare them.9 Cash-outs are usually less favorable than manual hedging.
All Edges Are Not Created Equal
Here's why. When banks sell you a safety feature, you pay for it. Sportsbook prices are not gift horses: they're priced to return less, each time, than the incoming stakes. No one offers a free hedge. Cash-out and manual hedge limit your potential profit, but a hedged parlay is still a dearer financial instrument than a standard wager.
So, What Do You Bid?
You're right to hedge some parlays; but your choice between a manual hedge and a cash-out will again and again come down to which line protects you better without conceding too much of your potential. Think of cash-out as a preset hedge, and select the hedge that lets you hold on to the greater share of your value.
Worked example
A $20 parlay that returns $270 if the last leg (Team A, -150) wins; hedge on Team B at +130
| Plan | Hedge stake on Team B | Team A wins | Team B wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| No hedge | $0.00 | $250.00 | -$20.00 |
| Partial hedge | $60.00 | $190.00 | $58.00 |
| Equal-result hedge | $117.39 | $132.61 | $132.61 |
Equal-result hedge = potential parlay return ÷ decimal odds of the hedge = $270 ÷ 2.30.